Modeling Land Use And Climate Change Scenarios To Manage Water Quality In Integrated Agricultural-Urban Landscapes

Project funded by USDA Postdoctoral Fellowship Program, (January 2022 -- December 2023).

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency established Total Maximum Daily Load goals to reduce nitrogen, phosphorous, and sediment reaching Chesapeake Bay in 2025 by 25%, 24%, and 20% respectively. Best Management Practices (BMPs) have been utilized to reduce nutrient inputs to the Bay from non-point sources such as urban stormwater and agricultural runoff. The Chesapeake Basin is projected to increase total developed areas but also increase agricultural productivity near developed areas, creating integrated agricultural-urban landscapes. As land uses change, how will the contribution of nutrients change? How will the distribution of agricultural and urban BMPs change with urbanization? In addition, climate change has been predicted to threaten both agricultural productivity and water quality. In this research, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) will model water quality of integrated agricultural-urban watersheds using BMPs under changing land use and climate conditions. A series of SWAT scenarios will estimate runoff, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus under land use and climate change as total loads from each land use and load reductions expected from BMPs. Crop yields will be compared to demonstrate agricultural productivity in relation to water quality goals. Ultimately, these scenarios will answer the question: under combined land use and climate projections, will agricultural or urban BMPs be most effective at reducing flow, sediment, and nutrients at a watershed scale?